Mon, 28 Sep 2020

Professor Predicts Biden Will Beat Trump in November Vote

Voice of America
06 Aug 2020, 08:35 GMT+10

A history professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984 says Democrat Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.

Appearing in a video streaming from the opinion pages of The New York Times, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, said he uses what he calls his "13 keys" system to forecast election results.

Lichtman's keys include whether a candidate is an incumbent, the long-term and short-term economic conditions, scandals, social unrest, and the candidates' personality and appeal.

"The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," but not by a landslide, Lichtman said.

Lichtman gives Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, the edge in seven keys, including social unrest, the coronavirus outbreak and how it is destabilizing the economy, and the Trump impeachment.

Six for Trump

Trump has the advantage in six keys. They include the president's incumbency, no serious Republican primary challengers, no major foreign military failures, and what Lichtman says is Biden's lack of charisma.

Although Lichtman is predicting a close election, a CNN roundup of the latest polls showed Biden winning by a landslide. A Fox News poll found the election a bit closer, but with Biden winning.

But no matter whether a voter is a Republican or a Democrat, Lichtman said, citizen participation is essential.

"It's up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy," he said. "So, get out and vote. Vote in person. Vote by mail."

Lichtman has correctly called every presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan defeated Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984.

He forecast Al Gore, a Democrat, beating Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and stands by his prediction. Gore barely won the popular vote, but the Supreme Court ruled in Bush's favor after a long dispute over inconclusive ballots cast in Florida.

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